How the score works: UEFA Champions League
54 matches in the Champions League have a Couchcall score so far this season, averaging 49, and 89% clear the pick bar of 40. Here is what the number is made of in Champions League and the settings it runs on; the method is shared by every soccer league and set out on How Couchcall works.
What drives the score in Champions League54 matches scored this season, each term from 0 to 100
| Term | Average here | All leagues | Picks above the rest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closeness | 78 | 87 | +43 |
| Quality | 58 | 54 | +4 |
| Stakes | 16 | 18 | +15 |
| Rivalry | 1 | 6 | +1 |
| Pace | 82 | 47 | +2 |
| Form | 62 | 51 | +5 |
In the Champions League the picks stand out most on closeness and then stakes: those are the terms where a match that clears 40 differs most from one that does not. Against the other leagues, the Champions League runs highest on pace and lowest on closeness. The win probability behind closeness came 67% from a bookmaker consensus and 33% from the table or a pre-season prior.
Teams whose matches score highest on paper
Average Couchcall score of every match they played or will play this season, among the 36 teams with three or more scored matches: PSG 61 (3), Bayern 59 (3), Barcelona 57 (3), Stuttgart 56 (3), Lens 55 (3).
The heaviest rivalries in the table: Der Klassiker (1.5), Derby du Nord (1.5), El Clásico (1.5), Intercontinental derby (1.5), Madrid derby (1.5).
The settings for Champions Leagueread from the configuration the pipeline runs on
| Win probability | two-way from a bookmaker consensus with the draw set aside; points per game with home advantage about 60/40 before a market |
|---|---|
| Team strength | Elo-style club rating, mapped from 1300 to 1700 |
| Table stakes | top 8 straight to the round of 16, 9-24 play-off, 25-36 out: places 1–8 weigh 1; places 9–24 weigh 0.5; places 25–36 weigh 0.2 |
| Rivalries | 21 weighted pairs, 7 marquee, 8 minor (map) |
| Pace | expected goals from 2 to 3.5 |
| Upset spice | 1 when a team whose table place decides something (zone weight 0.8 or more) is priced under 45% to win, read from the market only, never from the rating estimate. |
| Verdict | the goal timeline: 0.9 a goal, stars at 4, 6 and 8, late drama from the 85th minute, upset when a 60% favourite loses |
| Typical length | 2 hours, used for calendar entries |
A promotion or relegation play-off scores at least 0.9 on stakes, because it decides a season on its own. In a knockout tie, extra time and penalties add to the verdict as overtime does in hockey.
This season so farthe numbers behind the pages
| Matches scored | 54 |
|---|---|
| Average Couchcall score | 49 |
| Clearing the bar of 40 | 89% |
| Highest Couchcall score so far | 70 |
| Matches with a verdict | 27 |
| Worth it / maybe / skip | 44% / 4% / 52% |