How the score works: SHL
100 matches in the SHL have a Couchcall score so far this season, averaging 50, and 99% clear the pick bar of 40. Here is what the number is made of in SHL and the settings it runs on; the method is shared by every hockey league and set out on How Couchcall works.
What drives the score in SHL100 matches scored this season, each term from 0 to 100
| Term | Average here | All leagues | Picks above the rest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closeness | 91 | 87 | +30 |
| Quality | 60 | 54 | -1 |
| Stakes | 18 | 18 | +15 |
| Rivalry | 11 | 6 | +11 |
| Pace | 26 | 47 | +9 |
| Form | 51 | 51 | +1 |
In the SHL the picks stand out most on closeness and then stakes: those are the terms where a match that clears 40 differs most from one that does not. Against the other leagues, the SHL runs highest on quality and lowest on pace. The win probability behind closeness came 15% from a bookmaker consensus and 85% from the table or a pre-season prior.
Teams whose matches score highest on paper
Average Couchcall score of every match they played or will play this season, among the 14 teams with three or more scored matches: Frölunda HC 54 (16), Skellefteå AIK 53 (14), Malmö Redhawks 53 (14), Rögle BK 51 (15), IF Björklöven 51 (14).
The heaviest rivalries in the table: Norrlandsderby (1.5), Skånederby (1.5), Frölunda-Färjestad (1.3), Smålandsderby (1.3), Björklöven-Skellefteå (1.2).
The settings for SHLread from the configuration the pipeline runs on
| Win probability | two-way from a bookmaker consensus, the regulation draw split in half; points per game with about four points of home ice before a line |
|---|---|
| Team strength | points per game in the table, up to 2.4, pulled to the average early on |
| Table stakes | playoff, relegation: places 1–6 weigh 1; places 7–10 weigh 0.5; places 13–14 weigh 0.8 |
| Rivalries | 14 weighted pairs, 2 marquee, 8 minor (map) |
| Pace | expected goals from 4.5 to 7.5 |
| Upset spice | 1 when a team whose table place decides something (zone weight 0.8 or more) is priced under 45% to win, read from the market only, never from the rating estimate. |
| Verdict | the goal timeline: 0.35 a goal, stars at 5.5, 7.5 and 9.5, late drama from the 55th minute, upset when a 60% favourite loses |
| Typical length | 2.5 hours, used for calendar entries |
A promotion or relegation play-off scores at least 0.9 on stakes, because it decides a season on its own. SHL goals are known by period, not by minute, so lead changes inside a period are invisible and the verdict leans cautious; such games carry the mark period only.
This season so farthe numbers behind the pages
| Matches scored | 100 |
|---|---|
| Average Couchcall score | 50 |
| Clearing the bar of 40 | 99% |
| Highest Couchcall score so far | 78 |
| Matches with a verdict | 73 |
| Worth it / maybe / skip | 19% / 7% / 74% |
In the SHL nearly every match clears 40, so the picks are the top five of the day rather than everything above the bar.