How the score works: NFL
57 games in the NFL have a Couchcall score so far this season, averaging 46, and 68% clear the pick bar of 40. Here is what the number is made of in NFL and the settings it runs on; the method is shared by every American football league and set out on How Couchcall works.
What drives the score in NFL57 games scored this season, each term from 0 to 100
| Term | Average here | All leagues | Picks above the rest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closeness | 90 | 87 | +4 |
| Quality | 43 | 54 | +20 |
| Stakes | 19 | 18 | +14 |
| Rivalry | 13 | 6 | +9 |
| Pace | 35 | 47 | +10 |
| Form | 50 | 51 | +11 |
In the NFL the picks stand out most on quality and then stakes: those are the terms where a game that clears 40 differs most from one that does not. Against the other leagues, the NFL runs highest on rivalry and lowest on pace. The win probability behind closeness came 51% from a bookmaker consensus, 49% from a published power rating and 0% from the table or a pre-season prior.
Teams whose games score highest on paper
Average Couchcall score of every game they played or will play this season, among the 32 teams with three or more scored games: Seahawks 64 (4), Bears 60 (4), Bills 60 (3), Chiefs 58 (3), 49ers 57 (3).
The heaviest rivalries in the table: Packers-Bears (1.5), Steelers-Ravens (1.5), 49ers-Seahawks (1.3), Cowboys-Eagles (1.3), Saints-Falcons (1.3).
The settings for NFLread from the configuration the pipeline runs on
| Win probability | point spread, margins within 13.5 points of the line two games in three; moneyline when there is no spread; power ratings with 2.5 points of home field before a line |
|---|---|
| Team strength | power rating, mapped from −10 to 10 |
| Table stakes | Stakes are 45% the two teams' power-rating ranks in tiers (top four, eight, twelve, sixteen), 35% their playoff probability, 10% a division or conference game, and 10% how deep into the season it is. |
| Rivalries | 31 weighted pairs, 2 marquee, 17 minor (map) |
| Pace | over/under total from 40 to 70 points |
| Upset spice | 1 when a top-ten team by power rating is favoured but priced under 75%, half when the underdog is top ten, else 0. |
| Verdict | the win-probability chart, fourth quarter weighted up; stars at 3, 5 and 7 |
| Typical length | 3.25 hours, used for calendar entries |
This season so farthe numbers behind the pages
| Games scored | 57 |
|---|---|
| Average Couchcall score | 46 |
| Clearing the bar of 40 | 68% |
| Highest Couchcall score so far | 74 |
| Games with a verdict | 30 |
| Worth it / maybe / skip | 33% / 13% / 53% |