How the score works: NHL
250 games in the NHL have a Couchcall score so far this season, averaging 54, and 100% clear the pick bar of 40. Here is what the number is made of in NHL and the settings it runs on; the method is shared by every hockey league and set out on How Couchcall works.
What drives the score in NHL250 games scored this season, each term from 0 to 100
| Term | Average here | All leagues | Picks above the rest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closeness | 92 | 87 | +36 |
| Quality | 67 | 54 | +11 |
| Stakes | 18 | 18 | +16 |
| Rivalry | 5 | 6 | +5 |
| Pace | 58 | 47 | -20 |
| Form | 50 | 51 | -0 |
In the NHL the picks stand out most on closeness and then stakes: those are the terms where a game that clears 40 differs most from one that does not. Against the other leagues, the NHL runs highest on quality and lowest on form. The win probability behind closeness came 8% from a bookmaker consensus and 92% from the table or a pre-season prior.
Teams whose games score highest on paper
Average Couchcall score of every game they played or will play this season, among the 32 teams with three or more scored games: Oilers 60 (16), Mammoth 58 (16), Wild 58 (17), Bruins 57 (16), Capitals 57 (14).
The heaviest rivalries in the table: Battle of Alberta (1.5), Battle of Pennsylvania (1.5), Canadiens-Bruins (1.5), Canadiens-Maple Leafs (1.5), Battle of Florida (1.3).
The settings for NHLread from the configuration the pipeline runs on
| Win probability | two-way from a bookmaker consensus, the regulation draw split in half; points per game with about four points of home ice before a line |
|---|---|
| Team strength | points per game in the table, up to 1.6, pulled to the average early on |
| Table stakes | playoff-race: places 1–4 weigh 1.0; places 5–16 weigh 0.8 of 32 |
| Rivalries | 28 weighted pairs, 4 marquee, 15 minor (map) |
| Pace | expected goals from 4.5 to 7.5 |
| Upset spice | 1 when a team whose table place decides something (zone weight 0.8 or more) is priced under 45% to win, read from the market only, never from the rating estimate. |
| Verdict | the goal timeline: 0.35 a goal, stars at 5.5, 7.5 and 9.5, late drama from the 55th minute, upset when a 60% favourite loses |
| Typical length | 2.75 hours, used for calendar entries |
Stakes use the league-wide table, an approximation, since playoff places are decided by conference.
This season so farthe numbers behind the pages
| Games scored | 250 |
|---|---|
| Average Couchcall score | 54 |
| Clearing the bar of 40 | 100% |
| Highest Couchcall score so far | 80 |
| Games with a verdict | 165 |
| Worth it / maybe / skip | 25% / 10% / 65% |
In the NHL nearly every game clears 40, so the picks are the top five of the day rather than everything above the bar.