How the score works: Bundesliga
45 matches in the Bundesliga have a Couchcall score so far this season, averaging 52, and 100% clear the pick bar of 40. Here is what the number is made of in Bundesliga and the settings it runs on; the method is shared by every soccer league and set out on How Couchcall works.
What drives the score in Bundesliga45 matches scored this season, each term from 0 to 100
| Term | Average here | All leagues | Picks above the rest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closeness | 88 | 87 | – |
| Quality | 56 | 54 | – |
| Stakes | 14 | 18 | – |
| Rivalry | 7 | 6 | – |
| Pace | 88 | 47 | – |
| Form | 49 | 51 | – |
Against the other leagues, the Bundesliga runs highest on pace and lowest on stakes. The win probability behind closeness came 36% from a bookmaker consensus and 64% from the table or a pre-season prior.
Teams whose matches score highest on paper
Average Couchcall score of every match they played or will play this season, among the 18 teams with three or more scored matches: Bayern 60 (5), Leverkusen 58 (5), Freiburg 56 (5), Augsburg 56 (5), RB Leipzig 54 (5).
The heaviest rivalries in the table: Der Klassiker (1.5), Nordderby (1.5), Revierderby (1.5), Rheinderby (1.5), Rhein-Main-Derby (1.2).
The settings for Bundesligaread from the configuration the pipeline runs on
| Win probability | two-way from a bookmaker consensus with the draw set aside; points per game with home advantage about 60/40 before a market |
|---|---|
| Team strength | Elo-style club rating, mapped from 1300 to 1700 |
| Table stakes | title, Champions League places, relegation and play-off: first place weighs 1.0; places 2–5 weigh 0.8; places 16–18 weigh 0.8 of 18 |
| Rivalries | 17 weighted pairs, 4 marquee, 10 minor (map) |
| Pace | expected goals from 2 to 3.5 |
| Upset spice | 1 when a team whose table place decides something (zone weight 0.8 or more) is priced under 45% to win, read from the market only, never from the rating estimate. |
| Verdict | the goal timeline: 0.9 a goal, stars at 4, 6 and 8, late drama from the 85th minute, upset when a 60% favourite loses |
| Typical length | 2 hours, used for calendar entries |
A promotion or relegation play-off scores at least 0.9 on stakes, because it decides a season on its own.
This season so farthe numbers behind the pages
| Matches scored | 45 |
|---|---|
| Average Couchcall score | 52 |
| Clearing the bar of 40 | 100% |
| Highest Couchcall score so far | 75 |
| Matches with a verdict | 27 |
| Worth it / maybe / skip | 33% / 15% / 52% |
In the Bundesliga nearly every match clears 40, so the picks are the top five of the day rather than everything above the bar.