How the score works: Premier League
50 matches in the Premier League have a Couchcall score so far this season, averaging 48, and 92% clear the pick bar of 40. Here is what the number is made of in Premier League and the settings it runs on; the method is shared by every soccer league and set out on How Couchcall works.
What drives the score in Premier League50 matches scored this season, each term from 0 to 100
| Term | Average here | All leagues | Picks above the rest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closeness | 88 | 87 | +23 |
| Quality | 54 | 54 | +7 |
| Stakes | 13 | 18 | +10 |
| Rivalry | 7 | 6 | +7 |
| Pace | 55 | 47 | +10 |
| Form | 55 | 51 | +14 |
In the Premier League the picks stand out most on closeness and then form: those are the terms where a match that clears 40 differs most from one that does not. Against the other leagues, the Premier League runs highest on pace and lowest on stakes. The win probability behind closeness came 42% from a bookmaker consensus and 58% from the table or a pre-season prior.
Teams whose matches score highest on paper
Average Couchcall score of every match they played or will play this season, among the 20 teams with three or more scored matches: Brighton 61 (5), Liverpool 60 (5), Chelsea 53 (5), Man City 53 (5), Arsenal 51 (5).
The heaviest rivalries in the table: Manchester derby (1.5), Merseyside derby (1.5), North London derby (1.5), North West derby (1.5), Tyne-Wear derby (1.5).
The settings for Premier Leagueread from the configuration the pipeline runs on
| Win probability | two-way from a bookmaker consensus with the draw set aside; points per game with home advantage about 60/40 before a market |
|---|---|
| Team strength | Elo-style club rating, mapped from 1300 to 1700 |
| Table stakes | title, Champions League places, relegation: first place weighs 1.0; places 2–5 weigh 0.8; places 18–20 weigh 0.8 of 20 |
| Rivalries | 20 weighted pairs, 5 marquee, 9 minor (map) |
| Pace | expected goals from 2 to 3.5 |
| Upset spice | 1 when a team whose table place decides something (zone weight 0.8 or more) is priced under 45% to win, read from the market only, never from the rating estimate. |
| Verdict | the goal timeline: 0.9 a goal, stars at 4, 6 and 8, late drama from the 85th minute, upset when a 60% favourite loses |
| Typical length | 2 hours, used for calendar entries |
A promotion or relegation play-off scores at least 0.9 on stakes, because it decides a season on its own.
This season so farthe numbers behind the pages
| Matches scored | 50 |
|---|---|
| Average Couchcall score | 48 |
| Clearing the bar of 40 | 92% |
| Highest Couchcall score so far | 72 |
| Matches with a verdict | 30 |
| Worth it / maybe / skip | 33% / 7% / 60% |
In the Premier League nearly every match clears 40, so the picks are the top five of the day rather than everything above the bar.